The Challenge of Immigration Promises in UK Politics
Sir Keir Starmer’s recent declaration of “no more gimmicks” in immigration policy continues a long-standing pattern of political promises that have consistently failed to materialize. For over a decade, UK politicians have pledged to reduce net migration, yet these promises have repeatedly fallen short.
David Cameron first introduced the goal of reducing net migration to the “tens of thousands” in 2010. However, migration consistently remained above 200,000, reaching over 300,000 in 2016. Boris Johnson, who claimed Brexit would help “take back control of immigration,” saw migration numbers rise to 607,000 by the end of his premiership.
The reasons behind these failed promises are complex. Former Prime Minister Cameron attributes part of the challenge to the 2012 eurozone crisis, which drove young Europeans to seek work in the UK. Other factors included unexpected events like issuing visas to people from Hong Kong and Ukraine.
Internal government dynamics also play a significant role. Different government departments have competing objectives: the Home Office seeks to reduce numbers, while the Treasury values the economic contributions of immigrants, the Health Ministry relies on overseas workers, and the Business department wants to attract entrepreneurs.
Anand Menon, a political professor, describes this as a “fundamental dishonesty” where economic departments want more immigrants while the Home Office aims to restrict immigration. This creates conflicting narratives that are never fully explained to the public.
The focus on immigration numbers can be traced back to Migration Watch, a research group founded in 2001. Lord Green, one of its founders, wanted to move the immigration debate away from potentially racist undertones and instead focus on numerical targets. This approach proved influential, with media and politicians increasingly framing immigration as a numbers issue.
The numerical approach has been criticized by some, including former Home Secretary Charles Clarke, who believes it “poisons public debate” with a “Britain is full” mentality. Critics argue that net migration figures don’t accurately represent how immigrants are distributed or integrated into society.
Other countries are also experimenting with immigration caps. Switzerland is considering a referendum to limit its population, while in the US, there are discussions about mass deportations.
Sir Keir Starmer has been careful not to specify exact migration reduction targets. Experts suggest migration might naturally decrease due to recent visa regime changes and reduced immigration from specific regions like Hong Kong and Ukraine.
The fundamental challenge remains: how can political leaders effectively manage immigration when global events, economic conditions, and humanitarian crises continually impact migration patterns? Sir Keir Starmer faces the same complex challenge that has defeated many of his predecessors.
The article suggests that while politicians continue to make promises about immigration, the reality is far more nuanced and difficult to control than simple numerical targets might suggest.
