President Joe Biden has announced the United States will make another push for a ceasefire in Gaza, involving regional powers like Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel. The goal is to secure the release of hostages and remove Hamas from power, following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The conflict in Gaza began after Hamas’s unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken. Since then, the Hamas-run health ministry reports over 44,000 people have been killed and more than 104,000 injured in Gaza.
The recent Lebanon ceasefire has raised hopes for a potential agreement in Gaza. US officials believe the successful compromise in Lebanon demonstrates that negotiations are possible and may put pressure on Hamas. However, the situations differ significantly, with Israel’s objectives in Lebanon being more limited compared to its goals in Gaza.
Hamas has expressed openness to a ceasefire but continues to reject what it perceives as surrender terms. The organization is facing significant challenges, including:
– Scattered leadership across Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey
– Disconnection from hostage management
– Limited fighting capacity
– Declining popularity in Gaza
Despite insisting on conditions like Israeli withdrawal, a permanent ceasefire, and Gaza’s reconstruction, Hamas has indicated willingness to make concessions during negotiations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political considerations complicate matters. His far-right coalition partners want to rebuild Jewish settlements in Gaza and threaten to collapse the government if he makes a “reckless” agreement. Netanyahu also fears a potential commission of inquiry into Israel’s failure to prevent the October 7 attacks.
Qatar recently suspended mediation efforts, citing the need for both sides to shift their positions. The fundamental disagreement remains: Hamas demands an end to the war and complete Israeli withdrawal, while Israel remains committed to destroying Hamas.
Local residents in Gaza have mixed feelings about the potential ceasefire. While hopeful, many fear continued Israeli military operations and are traumatized by the extensive destruction and loss of life.
The Biden administration is making a final attempt to broker a deal before potentially transitioning to a Trump administration. It remains unclear how much priority a Gaza truce will receive under a potential Trump presidency, though he has shown interest in ending conflicts in the region.
Some defense analysts argue that the Lebanon ceasefire might actually enable Israel to continue fighting in Gaza by relieving military pressure on its northern front.
As negotiations continue, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains dire, with thousands of lives lost and millions displaced, underscoring the urgent need for a sustainable peace agreement.
