Rebel Forces Launch Major Offensive in Aleppo
Rebel forces have initiated the largest offensive against the Syrian government in years, successfully taking control of significant portions of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. The surprise attack was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group with a complex history in the Syrian conflict.
HTS Origins and Evolution
Originally established in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda, the group was initially involved in the fight against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi played a role in its formation. Recognized as one of the most effective rebel groups, HTS was driven more by jihadist ideology than revolutionary goals.
In 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, publicly broke away from Al Qaeda, dissolving Jabhat al-Nusra and creating a new organization. By 2017, this group merged with several similar organizations and became known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Current Syrian Political Landscape
For the past four years, the Syrian war has appeared to be effectively over. Assad’s rule is largely unchallenged in major cities, though some areas remain outside direct government control. These include Kurdish-majority regions in the east and the northwestern province of Idlib, which is predominantly controlled by HTS.
The recent offensive prompted the first Russian strikes on Aleppo since 2016 and resulted in the Syrian military withdrawing its troops from the city.
Context and Motivations
The attack comes after years of relative stability in Idlib, maintained by a 2020 ceasefire agreement between Russia and Turkey. Approximately four million people live in the region, most of whom were displaced from cities recaptured by Assad’s forces during the brutal conflict.
The timing of the offensive may be influenced by recent geopolitical developments, including Hezbollah’s setbacks in conflicts with Israel and Israeli strikes on Iranian military commanders in Syria.
HTS’s Current Strategy
Since breaking with Al Qaeda, HTS has focused on establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria, rather than pursuing the broader caliphate goal of IS. The group has established itself as the de facto local administration in Idlib, though its legitimacy has been questioned due to alleged human rights abuses.
This sudden offensive marks a significant departure from HTS’s previous limited ambitions, reigniting questions about the group’s long-term objectives and potential to challenge Assad’s control.
The attack represents a potentially transformative moment in the ongoing Syrian conflict, demonstrating that despite years of apparent stability, tensions and potential for renewed conflict remain high in the region.
