Republican Control and the Political Trifecta
Donald Trump’s recent election night mantra of “Promises made, promises kept” takes on new meaning with the Republican Party’s official control of Congress. In political terms, this represents a “governing trifecta” – when a president’s party controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
While single-party control was once common, it has become rarer in recent decades. Both Trump and Joe Biden experienced trifectas during their first two years in office, but such control doesn’t guarantee legislative success.
During his initial two-year period, Trump achieved a significant tax bill, reducing corporate taxes from 35% to 21% and cutting some individual taxes. However, he faced challenges within his own party. His attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed when Republican Senator John McCain refused to support the legislation. Similarly, his promised infrastructure bill did not materialize.
Biden’s experience was comparable. With Democratic control, he successfully passed the American Rescue Plan, the Investment and Jobs Act, and the Chips and Science Act. However, he had to substantially reduce his Build Back Better package due to opposition from within his own party.
A major legislative hurdle is the Senate’s filibuster rule, which requires a three-fifths majority (60 votes) to bypass. This means that even with a simple majority, parties must collaborate across party lines to pass legislation.
In the current political landscape, Trump’s potential power includes several key advantages:
1. Legislative Initiatives: He could potentially push through significant promises like:
– Large-scale migrant deportations
– Sweeping import tariffs
– Rolling back environmental protections
2. Judicial Landscape: Trump’s previous judicial appointments provide a significant advantage:
– Three conservative Supreme Court justices, creating a potential long-term conservative majority
– Over 40 judges placed on federal appeals courts
3. Administrative Appointments: With Senate control, Trump can more easily approve administration nominees, a process he struggled with during his first term.
Legislation passed through congressional approval would be more difficult to overturn in courts compared to executive orders, which were frequently challenged during his previous term.
However, political history suggests these trifectas are typically short-lived. The incoming administration will likely seek to maximize its opportunity for legislative action quickly.
Interestingly, early signs of potential internal Republican resistance emerged when the Senate selected John Thune as majority leader over Rick Scott, who was considered Trump’s preferred candidate. This selection might indicate some lawmakers are reasserting their independence.
While the political landscape offers Trump significant potential for implementing his agenda, the complexity of governance and historical patterns suggest that maintaining complete control will be challenging.
