The Eastern Mediterranean migration route, spanning from Turkey into Bulgaria or Greece, has seen a significant increase in migrant crossings, with numbers tripling between 2021 and 2023. The route now sees over 60,000 migrants annually, including Afghans, Turks, and Syrians, with some ultimately seeking to reach Britain.
The UK government, under Sir Keir Starmer, has proposed a strategy focused on disrupting people smuggling networks. This includes creating a new Border Security Command, increasing specialist investigators, and treating smugglers like terrorists. However, previous Conservative attempts to “stop the boats” have been largely unsuccessful, with 38,784 irregular arrivals detected in the year to June 2024.
Turkey, hosting over three million Syrian refugees, is experiencing growing social tensions. Refugees face increasing hostility, with President Erdogan urging them to return home. The deteriorating economic conditions and social climate are pushing many to consider leaving, often through illegal means.
People smugglers have adapted to modern technologies, using social media platforms to advertise routes and services. The National Crime Agency has worked with social media companies to remove around 12,000 smuggling-related posts, but connecting with smugglers remains relatively easy.
The Bulgaria-Turkey border, marked by a 4-meter high fence and razor wire, represents a critical point in migration routes. Despite increased security measures, including cameras, drones, and international border staff, migrants continue to find ways across. Bulgarian authorities have implemented additional strategies, such as fining individuals carrying unlicensed inflatable boats and using specialized sniffer dogs.
Experts suggest that completely stopping people smuggling is unrealistic. Peter Walsh from the Migration Observatory notes that while the flow can be reduced, global migration trends are largely beyond government control. Alternative strategies like addressing root causes through financial aid, bilateral agreements, or creating safe legal routes each have significant limitations.
The complexity of the issue is highlighted by encounters with migrants who demonstrate remarkable determination. At the Harmanli refugee camp, a group of Syrian men casually explained how their smugglers knew exactly where to cross the border, seemingly unimpeded by high-tech security measures.
Professionals working in border security and migration avoid absolute statements like “stop the boats.” Instead, they focus on more modest goals: making unauthorized border crossings more difficult, reducing numbers, and disrupting smuggling networks.
The underlying message is clear: while governments can implement various strategies to control migration, those desperate enough to seek a better life will continue to find ways to do so. The challenge lies not in completely preventing migration, but in managing and mitigating its impacts.
