The Unpredictable Path of Vladimir Putin: Escalation and Uncertainty in the Ukraine War
As the BBC’s Russia Editor, the article explores the pressing question: “What will Vladimir Putin do next?” following a week of significant escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Putin has demonstrated a consistent pattern of escalation throughout the war. His actions, including the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, declaring Ukrainian territories as Russian, deploying North Korean troops, and targeting Dnipro with a hypersonic missile, showcase his aggressive approach. The author metaphorically describes Putin as a car with no reverse gear, constantly accelerating without signs of deceleration.
This week marked two critical developments: Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapon usage and threatened countries supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles. He explicitly stated that Russia would consider using weapons against military facilities of countries allowing their weapons to be used against Russian targets.
The potential for further escalation is high. Ukraine is bracing for potentially heavier bombardments, while Western governments assess the threat level. There are already concerns about hybrid Russian warfare, with MI5’s head warning about potential sabotage and mayhem in British and European streets.
The nuclear option remains a significant concern. Putin has made increasingly explicit threats about potential nuclear weapon use, lowering the threshold for their deployment. While some experts suggest starting World War Three would be “short-sighted,” Putin’s emotional decision-making adds unpredictability to the situation.
An interesting factor influencing Putin’s potential actions is the upcoming US presidential election. With Donald Trump likely to replace Joe Biden, Putin might see an opportunity for more favorable negotiations. Trump’s skepticism about US military assistance to Ukraine and his openness to dialogue with Putin could potentially influence Russia’s current strategy.
Experts like Andrei Kolesnikov suggest that Putin’s decisions are often emotionally driven, making his next move difficult to predict. The possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, while unlikely to solve the conflict, remains a terrifying potential escalation.
The article emphasizes the complexity of predicting Putin’s actions. His resentment towards the West, determination not to back down, and potential strategic calculations regarding the US election all play crucial roles in shaping his potential responses.
Ultimately, the piece suggests that while Putin continues to embrace escalation, he might temporarily restrain himself if he believes the upcoming US political changes could work in Russia’s favor. However, the underlying message is clear: Putin remains an unpredictable actor on the global stage, with the potential to dramatically alter the conflict’s trajectory at any moment.
The key takeaway is that in the current geopolitical landscape, the question “What will Putin do next?” remains as uncertain and potentially volatile as ever.
